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Demand Forecasting

The issues

Today's trend in Demand Forecasting is clearly going towards automated forecast generation in hopes of increased accuracy. Chances are, you belong to one of these categories as well:

Analyx can help you no matter where you are in the use of automated demand forecasting. The following constitutes a list of our offerings so you can choose the right solution for you.

Our solutions for you

Forecast Consulting: We have helped many clients get their demand forecasting efforts to the next level. For some, Excel was still the best option and we simply improved their spreadsheet approach through process improvements and better statistical models. Others, however, had outgrown their spreadsheets and their increased number of SKUs just made the forecasting process unwieldy. For them, we identified the right forecasting tool that balanced their need for automation with the available budget. Finally, some already had a good tool for automated forecast generation, but the accuracy of the forecast was so poor, that nobody wanted to use it. For these clients, we engage in a full analysis of the forecasting tool as well as the process. More often than not, bad automated forecasts are caused by bad historical data. For more information, contact us.

CrowdWorx: CrowdWorx is Analyx' proprietary forecast environment that allows you to make better, since direct, use of market knowledge that is hidden within your own company. CrowdWorx is a web-based software that utilizes a market clearing mechanism to solicit people's opinions and insights into future market trends, translating this knowledge into a SKU - or category level forecast. To the 'traders', however, it feels just like a game betting on the right sales figure. CrowdWorx participants can include Sales, Marketing, Product Development, Logistics, even your customers. Clients that use CrowdWorx were able to

• more effectively include Sales in the forecasting process (you wouldn't believe it, they finally have fun forecasting!),

• improve forecasting accuracy for highly volatile products

• and finally produce a reliable forecast for new products.

Learn more about CrowdWorx.

Forecast system tuning (esp. Demantra Tuning): Demantra is a powerful and very flexible automated forecasting tool. Its Bayesian model balancing approach makes it one of the most accurate in the industry. Furthermore, its integration into your ERP system automatically assures you always have the latest sales data available for your forecast. Unfortunately, its comprehensiveness also makes it difficult to install and maintain, requiring a small army of consultants and long-term effort from your IT team. Furthermore, Demantra is particularly tricky to tune for accuracy, since many parameters are completely hidden from the user and their effect on forecast accuracy is not immediately apparent. It typically takes a significant amount of training and a fairly broad skill set, from SQL programming to Econometrics, for an individual to successfully tune Demantra. Fortunately, Analyx is among the very few specialized firms that can supplement your own installation capability or simply re-tune an 'out-of-shape' Demantra. For more information, contact us.

Better accuracy from historic sales data: Even if you don't have a system like Demantra or APO in place, our team of statisticians and industry experts from FMCG to Retail can support you in yielding better sales forecasts from your existing historic data. As long as you have monitored your sales on SKU level (price, channel etc.) for at least 2 years, it is likely that we can improve your accuracy significantly. For more information, contact us.

Impact

• By applying our social forecasting tool CrowdWorx our client, a global manufacturer of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), was able to increase his sales forecast accuracy by 15 percentage points. View the whole CrowdWorx case study.

• One of the leading juice-producers in the U.S. achieved a significant increase in forecasting accuracy after we have tuned their forecasting tool Demantra. For more information, contact us.

• For our client, one of Europe's leading specialist retailers, with an extensive forecasting process the annual cost of sales planning adds up to a significant amount. By using CrowdWorx, our client has achieved a 90% reduction in costs whilst maintaining forecast accuracy. Read the detailed CrowdWorx case study.